Analysts bullish as iPhone, Apple Watch release looms large

by Jonny Evans · September 14, 2021

Apple will continue to dominate wearables

At the eleventh hour before introduction of new iPhones, Apple Watch and AirPods 3, a pair of really positive outlooks emerged, with Apple set to maintain leadership in wearables and for premium smartphones.

Apple doesn’t need to change much to stay in the lead

Rupantar Guha, associate project manager for Thematic Research at GlobalData is bullish on Apple and its hold on the wearables market, saying:

“It won’t matter if Apple only makes minor redesigns to its wearable products, as the company’s strong brand and customer loyalty will maintain their popularity. In fact, the Watch Series 7 and AirPods 3 are expected to only reinforce Apple’s dominance in the smartwatches and hearables markets, which are estimated by GlobalData to be worth a respective $64bn and $146bn by 2030.

“Apple ranks third out of 48 companies in GlobalData’s consumer electronics thematic sector scorecard. The scorecards rank companies based on their relative strength in the ten most disruptive themes that are impacting their sector. Apple scores five out of five in the wearable tech theme, thanks to the remarkable success of the Apple Watch and AirPods. In 2022, Apple will launch more sophisticated wearable devices featuring new health tracking capabilities to ensure it retains its competitive edge.”

On the design of the watch, he said:

“Apple is a master of aesthetics, helping it stand out in the intensely competitive wearable tech market. The Apple Watch’s rectangular face with curved edges, and the AirPods’ unique shape, have been widely imitated – especially by smaller players. Although the latest changes are likely to be incremental, the new flat edges and bigger screen size of the Apple Watch Series 7 and the shorter stem of the AirPods 3 will differentiate them from their predecessors and rival devices.

“The new designs are in line with Apple’s broader redesign strategy, as seen with the iPhone 12 in 2020. The new look will particularly appeal to users who perceive the Apple Watch and AirPods as tech-enabled fashion accessories.”

AirPod battery life

“The AirPods 3 will reportedly come with better battery life than previous versions, even better than the 24 hours offered by the AirPods Pro and its charging case. Therefore, the AirPods 3 is likely to feature one of the best battery capabilities in the hearables market, which will give it an edge over competing devices. The Apple Watch Series 7 will also feature a smaller-sized chipset than the S6 chipset in the Watch Series 6, allowing Apple to expand the device’s battery capacity.”

Thanks to Counterpoint

iPhone leads the high end market

Also at the eleventh hour, Counterpoint chimed in with its own optimism, writing:

The global premium smartphone market (models priced $400* and above) recorded a 46% YoY sales growth in Q2 2021, according to Counterpoint Research’s Market Pulse Service. Apple continued to lead the segment, cornering over half of the sales during the quarter, followed by Samsung and Huawei, the analysts said.

A large part of the premium market growth in Q2 2021 was driven by Apple, which reported a sales growth of 74% YoY on the strong momentum of the iPhone 12 series due to the iPhone users continuing to upgrade to 5G.

When people aim high, aim higher

Within the premium segment, while all the price bands saw growth, the highest growth (182% YoY) was seen in the ultra-premium band (>$800). This was mainly due to the strong momentum of the iPhone 12 Pro Max and iPhone 12 Pro. The Pro versions were launched later than the usual September date, causing demand to spill over to the subsequent months, said Counterpoint.

Apple captured close to 75% of the ultra-premium segment, compared to 54% a year ago. This shift also indicates that more consumers now prefer high-end devices after realizing the importance of smartphones to them during the COVID-19 lockdowns. A section of consumers also had extra savings while working from home, which they invested in devices like smartphones.

The launch of the iPhone 12 series in Q4 2020 gave a boost to the sales of 5G capable devices in the segment. Going forward, the premium segment is likely to continue its growth momentum. The sales of the iPhone 12 have been very stable in markets like the US even before the launch of the new iPhone series this month.