Apple iPhone may soon be world’s biggest-selling smartphone

Tens of millions of iPhones are in production right now, probably.

Global smartphone shipments are predicted to decline, but Apple with its soon to ship iPhone 15 will be the brightest star within an industry in contraction, predicts Counterpoint.

Bright star, dark skies

The analysts believe 2023 will turn out to be the worst year for global smartphone sales for a decade with shipments down 6% to 1.15b units. They cite economic headwinds in Asia and the US, though China is seeing some strength.

“There’s been a decoupling between what’s happening in the economy and consumers buying phones. So far this year it’s been record low upgrades across all carriers,” said Jeff Fieldhack, Research Director for North America in a press release.

However, the final quarter of 2023 could be interesting.

Poachers gonna poach

Not only will the iPhone 15 introduction see carriers compete to poach big-spending customers from one another, but it’s also the time when the iPhone 12 installed base is more likely to seek an upgrade.

That’s good news for Apple and for customers as carriers are likely to offer aggressive sales promotions as they seek to poach customers.

Meanwhile, in China, “Apple is well positioned as the premium segment continues to gain more share.” states Ethan Qi, Associate Director for China.

It is interesting that Counterpoint pays little attention is paid to Apple’s work in India, where, let’s face it, the company is just one or two good carrier deals away from grabbing a huge slice of the emerging market of wealthier consumers.

Given the big increase in consumer spending in India, and the imminent arrival of a third Apple retail store there, events could be significant moving forward.

Upselling the planet

That the world’s smartphone shoppers are gravitating to premium smartphones favors Apple. All across the planet, shoppers are choosing high-end smartphones (or the best they can afford) and that segment is dominated by iPhone.

Apple has proved the case for great products and shown its commitment to creating them, and this translates into high resale values, high ARPU and world-beating customer satisfaction rankings. Once again, this is a major opportunity for Apple – one that could lead it to become the world’s biggest smartphone vendor for the first time.

“It’s the closest Apple’s been to the top spot.  We’re talking about a spread that’s literally a few days’ worth of sales,” said Fieldhack. “Assuming Apple doesn’t run into production problems like it did last year, it’s really a toss-up at this point.”

We shall see, I guess, but it seems to me that the trend in which Apple’s actual market share is increasing while the industry shrinks a little will continue. It’s only a matter of time before iPhone becomes the world’s biggest-selling smartphone.

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