Apple may need to delay 3nm iPhone chips, report claims

I can imagine the moment the designer drew this blueprint after so many iterations

Based on what we knew concerning Apple chip supply partner TSMC’s development road map we had sort of expected iPhones to transition to 3-nanometer processors in 2022, but production challenges may delay the plan.

iPhone sticks with 5nm chips for 2022, report claims

The Information kicks in to repeat claims to this effect. “The upshot of TSMC’s struggles is that the iPhone’s processor will be stuck on the same chip manufacturing process for three consecutive years, including next year, for the first time in its history,” the publication writes.

The report speculates that a delay in any move to a new 3nm architecture may dent Apple’s upgrade sales. “That could in turn cause some customers to put off upgrading their devices for another year,” it writes.

Yes and no

I’m not certain that will be the case.

Yes, it may impact sales across bleeding edge technologists, but people using an iPhone 6S or iPhone 7 (which will be the biggest slices of 2022’s upgrade cycle) will still benefit from a move to whatever tweaked chip Apple’s silicon boffins can build on the 5nm process.

That’s no small thing, as microarchitectural improvements in processor design will only become more important as we approach the finite limit in process size. A nanometer is one billionth of a meter and at some point it will be more efficient to tweak existing process designs than to try to increase the number of transistors you can squeeze onto those things. There is plenty of opportunity to tweak these chips and retain leadership.

It’s also worth pointing out that Apple leads the industry with its existing adoption of 5nm chips, so at worst it just gives the rest of the business some chance to catch up, pending Apple striding to the front once again come 3nm chips.

Apple is good with chips

Not now is not the same as never

That’s educated speculation I guess, so let’s return to the latest news report. The Information states that even though delays have kicked in, TSMC is still expected to be the first manufacturer to hit 3nm process when they do appear.

The report also digs out some less pretty information concerning the relationship between Apple and TSMC. It turns out Apple accounted for a quarter of that company’s revenue last year, from $21.43b to $48.08b.

Will this have climbed since, given the success of the M-series chips and a year’s consistently high iPhone sales? Apple has also put pressure on the company to meet targets at an agreed price and to diversify where it places its chip production factories.

Returning to the processors, that close relationship has helped Apple maintain supply of its primary processors during the recent chip shortage, and enables close integration between hardware and software across its devices. That’s because the very processor can be tweaked to optimize software processes that run on that chip, which delivers profound power and performance benefits, as recent benchmark tests should show.

So, does a slight delay matter?

In the grand scheme of things, probably not a great deal – yes, Apple will need to figure out some way to mask its disappointment in not reaching 3nm as swiftly as it had perhaps anticipated, but the fact these chips will eventually appear means the company is on track to embed intelligence into all manner of future devices. But, given other reports have also claimed Apple may have big designs on an iPhone redesign in 2022, there are other ways Apple can juice its golden iGoose than a chip upgrade. I feel relatively sanguine its teams will suggest something to keep that meat sweet in 2022. But we may be waiting for 3nm for a little while longer after all.

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