Apple seems sad we aren’t upgrading so fast to iOS 15

Apple iOS adoption data for January 2022

Apple published its iOS distribution data this week.  It seems to confirm slow adoption to iOS 15 in contrast to previous releases. The company has moved to stop signing iOS 14 security updates to push people across.

Apple’s iOS installation data

Apple’s data shows this to be one of the slowest system upgrade seasons.

It says that around 63% of all active iPhones and 49% of active iPads are on iOS 15. This rises slightly across devices released in the last four years: 72% of iPhones are on the new OS, though just 57% of iPads have upgraded.

This is quite unusual for Apple. It’s possible that the decision to radically redesign the Safari browser and continued mistrust of announced plans around on-device content snooping has put people off.

When Apple introduced iOS 14, around 81% of iPhones and 75% of iPads introduced in the preceding four years upgraded to the new OS by mid-December. This slipped slightly across the entire user base to 72% (iPhone) and 61% (iPad).

Step back to iOS 13 upgrade patterns and we saw the OS installed on 55% of all four-year-old devices and 50% of all active devices.

iPhone users are secretive and don’t want their family to know what they do online

What will it take to convince people?

Despite his laggardly upgrade cycle, it’s not a massive problem. Apple’s systems remain highly unfragmented. Just 2% of all iPhones released in the last four years and 4% of iPads introduced in the same period run iOS 13 or earlier.

When it comes to iPhones and iPads still in active use, just 7% of Apple smartphones and 14% of iPads are running iOS 13 or earlier. Many of these will be older units the company may hope to convince users to upgrade on the looming introduction of  the new iPad Air and iPhone SE 3. It also seems possible the eventual introduction of Universal Control will prompt iPad users to upgrade.

The decision to stop signing security updates is inconsistent.

Apple made iOS 15 an optional update in the Software Update system, so to move to make it mandatory now looks inappropriate.

I do have one pet theory that after years of uncertainty, many people may be becoming more resistant to change. They want to maintain things they know will work rather than risk upgrading because confidence is low. Perhaps I’m reading too much into it.

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