Apple’s iPhone achieves best ever third quarter, analysts explain

When it comes to Apple’s iPhone, every year seems similar – the company sees a dip in sales as news of a new device comes closer, and then experiences a surge in demand once the product is introduced. The evidence is that this is what is happening all over again this year, with a second wave spike likely to appear once Apple Intelligence ships.

So, why do I think this?

One of the quieter highlights of iPad mini announcement week was a release rustled out by Canalys at the same time as a US public holiday. That release told us that global smartphone shipments climbed 5% year on year in Q3 2024 – and that Apple achieved its highest third-quarter volume to date.

That’s quite significant, as the third quarter traditionally represents Apple’s weakest sales period as shoppers sit back in anticipation of new devices from the company. Anecdotally, at least, it looks as if many shoppers did sit back, but many more chose to take a leap into Apple’s ecosystem. I’ll be interested to read Q3 switching data once some of that information comes through.

What did Canalys have to say?

This is what Canalys said:

Analyst Runar Bjørhovde says: “Apple achieved its highest third-quarter volume to date and has never been closer to leading the global smartphone market in a Q3 than now.”

He also “The ongoing strong demand for the iPhone 15 series, along with Apple’s legacy models, played a crucial role in its Q3 performance. The market’s shift towards premium devices, intersected by an ongoing refresh cycle of devices bought during the pandemic, is benefiting Apple, particularly in its strong-hold regions such as North America and Europe. Apple’s improved product diversification has helped it lower lead times. Despite a modest initial reception, the iPhone 16 is expected to help Apple maintain a strong finish to 2024 and help momentum in H1 2025, particularly as Apple Intelligence expands into new markets and supports additional languages.”

But what’s more interesting is the extent to which Apple is catching up with Samsung.

Apple is slowly taking Samsung’s lunch

With a phone for every price point, Samsung is the smartphone leader, but Apple continues to catch that company up. Samsung shipped 18% of smartphones in Q3, narrowly defending its position against Apple, whose iPhones also made up 18% of shipments. Xiaomi took 14% market share and maintained its position as the third largest smartphone vendor. OPPO reclaimed the fourth spot on the ranking table for the first time this year with 9% market share, supported by strong growth in India and Latin America. Completing the top five, vivo grew its shipments by double digits to make up 9% of the market.

Things are getting competitive – and Apple’s move to deliver its own private AI that also supports OpenAI, privately, and as part of a more complex and wide platform ecosystem may well tip the company over the edge.

Wind beneath the iWings

There’s all to play for.

“The gap between the top five vendors has narrowed, intensifying the competitive landscape” commented Le Xuan Chiew, Analyst at Canalys. “Vendors are entering the holiday shopping season with solid momentum and cautious optimism, aiming to attract consumers who have postponed upgrading their devices in anticipation of deals during major events like 11.11 and Black Friday. However, the importance of effective resource planning cannot be overstated. While market conditions are improving, demand remains fragile as vendors face increasing global challenges in demand generation and regulatory hurdles, such as the EU’s eco-design directive. Effective supply chain management, maintaining healthy inventory levels, and optimizing sales and marketing fund allocation are becoming even more critical for market leadership.”

Apple, meanwhile, is about to blow past all of them.

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