Counterpoint predicts fast adoption of Apple’s AR glasses

Events don’t always go according to plans or predictions, but the analysts at Counterpoint seem to have pretty high expectations for Apple’s AR glassses, and indeed the entire market for the things.

Augmented, virtual or extended unreality

The analysts have even found an acronym to straddle all the different kinds of Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality solutions they expect to see. They combine all of these into a new category of Extended Reality.

So, what are they expecting?

The biggest prediction is that adoptoin of these solutoins is going to grow really fast.

The analysts predict the market will climb from c.11 million units in 2021 to 105 million in 2025. That’s rapid deployment in a market developers will do well to serve, particularly as those companies that manage to build popular solutions early may well carve virtual empires later on.

Volume will rise ‘significantly’ in 2022

The analysts point to Oculus Quest 2 in the consumer segment and DPVR and Pico in the enterprise segment as first to market devices that are already winning hearts and minds, adding:

“We believe XR headset volumes will start picking up significantly in 2022, as it will be the biggest year for new XR product launches, with offerings from the Oculus Quest series, Sony PlayStation VR2 and the most awaited Apple AR glasses,” they wrote in a press release.

“Oculus and Sony have created a strong demand for their devices and built a good user base for upgrades, while Apple has a strong history of gaining volumes in a new category,” they said.

[Also read: What we think we know about Apple’s AR headset]

Will it be tethered?

Counterpoint Senior Analyst Karn Chauhan made a few observations:

• VR Standalone has become the device type of choice in the gaming segment primarily due to the success of Oculus’s Quest 2.
• The wireless form factor is the future for XR headsets.
• VR Standalone devices are being favored over VR Tethered devices by OEMs and consumers.

The analyst observed, “Augmented Reality (AR) has been a small segment since 2016, mainly serving the enterprise segment with high-spec and high-price products. This is unlikely to change in the immediate future.”

But what’s most important (at least to Apple watchers and developers interested in identifying and creatinginnovative solutions for the iPhone maker’s platforms) is his prediction as regards Apple:

“However, with Apple expected to enter the AR Tethered segment, we expect it to become the fastest growing and the second biggest form factor by 2025. This will catalyze the participation of many other brands, especially smartphone OEMs.”

If I have one slight objection to this prediction it is that more recent speculation has claimed Apple’s AR solutions will host their own processors and will not be tethered to another device.

China will be an important market for these things

There are also some interesting observations around which markets will grow most quickly. The US and Canada are expected to dive straight in, picking up Oculus and Apple, but the other key market is epected to be China.

Europe is expected to see relatively slow uptake.

Why?

Language and network deployment, it appears. China is a vast market which already boasts widespread 5G adoption and a common language which means content creators can hit a really large market really fast.

“Some of its demand will be fulfilled by existing OEMs like DPVR and Pico and by major Chinese smartphone OEMs that will follow Apple into the XR segment within the first half of this decade,” Chauhan said.

Up next

We’ll find out much, much more across the next year or so, of course, but it’s reasonable to assume competitors, including Oculus and Meta/Facebook, will seek to stake their claims in the market as they prepare for Apple’s debut  – but the pace is accelerating now with Apple’s AR adventures now predicted to begin in a matter of months.

Let the non-virtual virtual games begin.

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