iPhone 13 demand is crazy, but iOS 15 adoption seems slow

iOS 15’s Live Text is exciting to me

Changes in Safari and the decision to apply scary CSAM surveillance tools in iOS 15 may have blunted people’s appetite for Apple’s new mobile OS, as the number of people installing the update appears to have fallen by c.40% in comparison to previous years.

Millions are upgrading, but slower than before

This is the inference of data provided by Mixpanel, which claims that over 8.5% of users downloaded iOS 15 within two days of its launch. But this compares poorly with iOS 14, which was installed by over 14.5% of users by day two of its availability.

That’s no reason for any great concern, as history shows installation usually reaches around 80% of users within a couple of months and Mixpanel’s data only reflects visits made to sites on its network. In June Apple told us 85% of iPhones were then using iOS 14.

It’s also true to reflect that iPhone users have become more discreet when installing software updates, with more of them than ever delaying the upgrade pending last minute problems and desire for a faster upgrade process.

Not only that, but some of the stickier features such as SharePlay aren’t yet supported in the release.

Mixpanel data

Expect slower adoption in future

Apple’s decision to make it easier for users to stick with older iterations of the OS will also have an impact on future upgrade patterns. The company has now made it possible to install security updates while sticking with an older OS, if you wish.

What will be interesting to determine is the impact of iPhone 13 sales on iOS 15 adoption. The first devices should be on the way to the earliest purchasers over the coming days, and as these ship with iOS 15 pre-installed this is likely to heat up iOS adoption data slightly.

But iPhone 13 demand soars

Analysts are detecting strong sales globally as iPhone 13 meets pent-up demand for 5G, and in China pre-orders for the device exceeded those for the iPhone 12, according to local reports. Chinese state media currently estimates 5 million pre-orders were made on day one, with this activity almost toppling Apple China’s website, which slowed to a crawl.

The iPhone may rapidly be approaching 50% of the market of UK smartphone users and 60% of all U.S. smartphone users, according to fresh information from Piplsay as picked up by Asymco’s Horace Dediu.

“Much to the dismay of its rivals, there is little reason to indicate Apple is not on course to continue its incredible momentum into 2022,” said Ben Wood, Chief Analyst, CCS Insight following the iPhone 13 launch.

Activity seems more muted with the operating system. “Surprisingly, iOS 15 doesn’t introduce any notable improvements to what made its predecessor wildly popular last year. In fact, as I’ll explore in this review, iOS 15 doesn’t have that single, all-encompassing feature that commands everyone’s attention such as widgets in iOS 14 or dark mode in iOS 13,” wrote MacStories’ Federico Viticci in his extensive iOS review.

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