Something doesn’t add up in the latest PC sales data

Apple’s first M1-powered Macs have sold strongly since they appeared.

I’m quite puzzled at the latest PC sales data from IDC and Gartner. I’m with Patently Apple in that I’ve never experienced such discord between the two sets of figures before. One of the two companies has got this wrong.

Someone has got this wrong

IDC sees Apple’s Mac shipments as a fifth place tie with Asus, giving Cupertino 6.7% of global PC market share. Gartner gives Apple fourth place with 8.8% of the market, for 9.3% growth in the last 12-months. IDC reckons Apple’s share fell 22.5% since 12-month ago.

My gut feeling is that Gartner will be proved more right than IDC on this, mainly because we know how well-received Apple’s M-series Macs have consistently been across the last 12 months.

But we also have some statements from Apple that seemingly support Gartner’s more positive outlooks:

• Apple claimed double-digit growth in each of its product categories in the quarter announced July 27, 21. Mac sales hit $8.235m.
• Apple revealed record results across all its product categories in FY 2021Q4 in September. Mac sales hit $9.178m.
• Mac sales hit $10.85m2 in FY2022 Q1.
• In the March quarter (FY22 Q2) Apple set March quarter revenue for Macs, staying steady at $10,435m in the quarter.
• In each of the quarters described above sales climbed in comparison to the prior quarter and on a year-by-year basis.

Of course, there is also the fact that a few weeks ago IDC was talking about Apple’s Mac sales being up 4.3% year-on-year.

It doesn’t seem to add up

Putting all this together makes it hard to believe Apple will have experienced a 22.5% decline on Q2 2021. I’m also not able to rationalize how a 22.5% decline would turn into a 0.6-point fall in marketshare year on year, based on IDC’s own claimed market share data. IDC says Apple had 7.3% of the market in 2Q21 but this fell to 6.7% in 2Q21. But this makes no sense as a 22.5% decline would give Apple a 5.7% share (approximately).

I may have made a fundamental error here, but this looks like an error to me.

Gartner’s data hangs together better, and also matches both our experiential understanding and the volume of attentionthat has been thrown at Apple’s Macs in recent months.

That TSMC’s revenue also remains on track helps reinforce the more positive outlook I see.

Of course, it’s hard not to take pity on the analysts. They may simply be facing a difficult task of data extrapolation in the middle of a war, an ongoing pandemic, and a whole host of black swan uncertainties which means both analyst firms may have deeply fundamental differences in their risk analysis.

Something about the new set of claims just doesn’t ring true.

Wait for the bells

What does seem to be true is that the overall PC industry has really had problems this quarter, but the huge divergence between both firm’s figures mean we’ll have to watch the reports this earnings season and decide for ourselves what the facts might be.

My gut feeling is that decline has hit everyone, but Apple’s overall market share will have increased. I just don’t know by how much.

Now read this: PC makers unhappy at Apple’s big bright Mac future

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