This is what Morgan Stanley expects from Apple’s iPhone 14

Morgan Stanley has published a note to investors exploring the implications of Apple’s upcoming iPhone 14 launch. The note looks at current expectations, speculates that the earlier release of the device is unlikely to impact current quarter revenues too much, and makes a few educated guesses at what to expect on September 7.

This is what Morgan Stanley expects from iPhone 14

Citing supply chain checks, Morgan Stanley reprises most current market speculation, predicting the following:

Four iPhone models: iPhone 14 (6.1″ display), iPhone 14 Max (6.7″), iPhone 14 Pro (6.1″), and iPhone 14 Pro Max (6.7″).

Available for pre-orders sFriday, September 9th, and in-store availability/shipping starting Friday, September 16 for all models.

The analyst also anticipates a greater difference between Apple’s premium and entry-level models:

Pro and Pro Max to gain

• ProMotion display with pill and dot notch.
• Potential always on display
• A16 Bionic faster chip
• Improved front and rear camera
• Potential for fast charging

iPhone 14/14Max

These are anticipated to be like iPhone 13 with the same chip, though iPhone 14 Max may gain a 6.7-inch display and sub-$1,000 cost.

How much will these things cost?

There’s a lot of speculation on price. Morgan Stanley predicts:

• iPhone 14: From $799 w 128GB
• iPhone 14 Max: From $899 w. 128GB.
• iPhone 14 Pro: From $999 w. 128GB.
• iPhone 14 Max: From $1,099 w. 128GB.

They also predict older devices will see prices slashed by $100 across the board, which may be good news if you still want an iPhone mini.

The analysts do of course raise the also heavily hyped rumor the new devices may start with 256GB storage, in which case they expect the price to start $100 higher.

One interesting thing they also note is that 90% of iPhones shipped in 2022 were current models.

What else do they expect?

Everyone expects Apple Watch Series 8. There’s some speculation around AirPods Pro, though that expectation has been in and out of fashion for months at this point. Morgan Stanley also thinks there’s a chance for a new HomePod mini and/or new Apple TV. Anything that isn’t announced may sneak into the October Mac/iPad launch party, they surmise.

Will it impact AAPL stock?

Yes and no. Morgan Stanley sees a potential 1% upside immediately following the launch, but points out that in the 6 months following previous introductions Apple’s shares have climbed 11 points on average.

They seem a lot keener to see what happens when and if Apple introduces its mixed reality headset or extends to the much speculated upon Apple as a Service hardware subscription models we all think it is planning. They peg 236.6 million iPhone sales next year.

Are they right?

I think they’ll probably be proved far more right than wrong, and it will be interesting to see the extent to which Apple evangelizes new services at next week’s event.

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