Vision Pro means everyone wants to make a spatial computer

Back in the olden days of just last year I pointed out that the steady sound of ‘nothing much happening’ emanating from the AR/VR/Spatial industry at that time reflected an entire industry gasping for air while it waited for Apple to do something.

That Apple-holic screed seems to have been on the right track, reading between the lines of fresh IDC data that crossed my desk this morning.

The industry is no longer gasping, and Apple leads it

You see that data claims shipments of these headsets are forecast to increase 44.2% this year, following a 23.5% decline last year. It’s difficult to figure out what has changed (cough: “It was the debut of Vision Pro”) to make this dramatic market share transition take place.

In its own diplomatic way, IDC (which strives to deliver a balanced approach) puts it this way: “Apple’s launch of the Vision Pro grabbed a lot of headlines and has raised awareness for AR and VR and although it’s priced out of reach for most, it is helping raise the bar for competitors,” said Jitesh Ubrani, who is the research manager Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers at IDC.

Now everyone wants to make spatial computers

Apple, of course, has bought to market an all new “Spatial Computing” concept around such devices. It’s visionOS systems are not solely confined to delivering entertainment experiences, they are functional devices that among other things let you strap a fully functioning gesture operated Mac on your head. They mix the physical with the digital and create environments which can be used productively, as well as for entertainment.

This was Apple’s big idea, and (once again reading between the lines) it seems as if the industry couldn’t wait to place its many feet in the same direction. “Along with Apple, many companies such as Meta and others have already begun their journey, transitioning from VR to Mixed Reality; ultimately laying the groundwork for true AR experiences,” said Ubrani.

Things may evolve fast.

Where you going to go with a computer on your head?

VR headset sales are forecast to hit a CAGR of 29.2%, while AR headsets are expected to achieve 87.1%. I’m assuming the latter category is the one into which IDC slots Apple’s vision for a category it doesn’t call “headsets”.

Of course, the stalking horse within this is going to be the steady emergence and deployment of artificial intelligence within these solutions. After all, if you only need to speak and make a few gestures in order to make complex tasks happen, then things could get very interesting

On this, Ramon T Llmas, who is IDC Research Director on AR and VR, said: “Mixed reality (commonly referred to as MR, the ability for users to toggle between augmented and virtual reality) has been the exception and not the norm, but Apple has shone a bright light on MR with the Vision Pro.

“Next, look at how companies will increasingly incorporate artificial intelligence to analyze data and generate virtual content for the user. Finally, display technology will move from content consumption to content interaction with more sophisticated sensors and displays.”

Coming soon to an Apple Store near you?

Apple will reveal its initial Vision Pro market performance insights in early May for a quarter that actually ends April 1. At time of writing this it is mid-March, and already speculation exists the company intends introducing the product into other markets sooner than the end of 2024 (though that’s just a rumor).

With that in mind and new iPads allegedly in the frame for the end of this month, what are the chances of an early May international debut for Vision Pro?

At present I’m going 50/50, but Apple may surprise us.

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