Why you really should watch iPhone 15 second user prices

This one also runs Apple Intelligence…

You only have a few hours left to get the best deal if you intend to sell your iPhone series 15 device to raise cash toward purchasing an iPhone 16 model. That’s because demand for the older model usually declines once the new one arrives.

But perhaps things will be a little different this time.

The facts about second user iPhone sales

First some facts: SellCell tells us that 14 days before the anticipated release of a new iPhone is usually the sweet spot for trading in the old model. The second user reseller notes that in 2023 older iPhone 13/14 models lost as much as 55% of their second user value by the time the iPhone 15 shipped.

“If you wait too long, you could see your phone’s value drop by as much as 8.3% of its value; an iPhone can lose up to $133 in value from 28 days prior to release, up to the point of the new handset’s release and up to $104 from 14 days prior to the release. This was the case for the iPhone 14 Pro Max 1TB back in 2023,” they warn, publishing a couple of graphs to articulate their points.

As you can see, some models lost more value than others.

So, it is very likely that if you wait too long you’ll raise less cash when you try to sell to upgrade than you might otherwise achieve.

At least, this is what usually happens. You can monitor what happens this year using SellCell’s handy depreciation tool.

Why it may be different this time

But usually is not the same as always. This release may see a slightly different set of outcomes, and that’s all because of Apple Intelligence.

Apple’s commitment to backwards compatibility is far better than anyone else in the industry. Most of us can use our iPhone for five years before it really begins to feel a little antiquated and slow (though battery replacement may be required).

However, the biggest feature of iOS 18 and therefore within iPhone 16 is Apple Intelligence, which is only compatible with iPhone 15 or later.

What this means is that anyone wanting to run Apple Intelligence on their iPhone will be looking to get hold of an iPhone 15 or later device. And that means those iPhone 15 units that do hit the second user market may well attract stronger prices than usually, because so many people will probably want one, and may not have the cash to spring for an iPhone 16 device.

I think this supply and demand will shore up the second user market, giving the iPhone 15 a higher selling price until a cheaper Apple Intelligence device (*cough, iPhone SE) turns up.

What else might this mean?

If as I suspect the iPhone 15 suddenly dominates the second user market, then those sales must be considered alongside iPhone 16 sales (and Mac and iPad sales) as analysts consider the size of Apple’s AI user base,

Of course, not everyone wants AI in their device, and while the focus on it may drive some iPhone prices North, it may also mean people looking to purchase pre-used iPhone 14 models and earlier may soon find them available at better – perhaps, even, much better — prices than before.

I’d be interested to see if these working theories prove accurate, and I hope the people at SellCell will let me know if it does – and I’d be keen to look at historical date relating to iPhone 14, 13, and 12 prices in the second user market over the last 12-18 months, and how this contrasts with the trends seen in earlier models.

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