Will Apple beat its Q4 iPhone sales record in 2024?

Apple seems on track to become the world’s biggest smartphone vendor again across the critical gifting season, even as the size of the smartphone market climbs.

To be fair, this isn’t such a big surprise. Apple has been the market leader in Q4 every year since 2022, and with Apple Intelligence to drive interest in its latest iPhone, I see no reason for that to change any time soon.

It doesn’t seem at all likely to change that habit, according to Counterpoint’s latest data which reveals global smartphone market share, though that info does reveal some intermittent slowness in iPhone sales.

Counterpoint observed:

• The global smartphone market grew by 8% YoY to reach 289 million unit shipments in Q2 2024, owing to better consumer demand in Caribbean and Latin America and Europe regions.
• Samsung retained the top position globally, accounting for 19% shipment share, driven by Galaxy A-series.
• Apple’s shipments registered marginal growth in Q2 2024. Muted demand in North America markets and stiff competition in China were some of the reasons for this marginal growth.
• Among the top five OEMs, Xiaomi grew the fastest, registering 27% YoY shipment growth, posting strong performance in China, India and other emerging markets.

Here’s Counterpoint’s graph:

Screenshot

Tailwinds seem positive

The missing links here – the ones which bode best for Apple, at any rate – are in China and India, the upcoming iPhone SE release next year, and the arrival of Apple Intelligence later this month.

The latter will help rekindle interest in the new iPhone, even as Mac and iPad upgraders become a little more enthused by new models made available to them.

Meanwhile early reports out of China and certainly from India suggest strong interest in the new iPhones, and this is also being seen in other rapidly emerging economies. The upcoming OLED iPhone SE should generate interest if only because it will be a much better device, bringing 5G to the mid-range Apple smartphone market.

All these signs are positive, and in conjunction with Apple’s processor ascendancy, Apple’s Q4 2024 seems set to repeat existing patterns, while the upcoming iPhone SE should buoy Apple’s smartphone sales into some of its traditionally weaker sales quarters.

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